Levante


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Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

50%

Draw

23%

Away win

27%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

33%

Draw

25%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.4 1.6
Diff -0.5 0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 50% 23% 27%
Observed-shots-based 33% 25% 42%
Diff -17% 3% 15%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 41 11 57 35
Defence 43 65 59 89
Overall 38 31 62 69


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