Eibar


2 : 0

Atlético Madrid


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

29%

Draw

29%

Away win

43%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

26%

Draw

30%

Away win

43%

Away Goals

1.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.0 1.3
Observed-shots-based 0.9 1.2
Diff -0.1 -0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 29% 29% 43%
Observed-shots-based 26% 30% 43%
Diff -2% 2% 1%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 50 87 50 13
Defence 50 87 50 13
Overall 49 96 51 4


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