FC Schalke 04


2 : 0

Borussia Mönchengladbach


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

34%

Draw

24%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

1.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

59%

Draw

24%

Away win

18%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.6
Observed-shots-based 1.7 0.9
Diff 0.4 -0.7

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 34% 24% 42%
Observed-shots-based 59% 24% 18%
Diff 25% -1% -24%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 59 61 34 19
Defence 66 81 41 39
Overall 67 77 33 23


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