Torino


1 : 0

Bologna


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

38%

Draw

26%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

15%

Draw

22%

Away win

62%

Away Goals

1.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.3
Observed-shots-based 0.9 1.9
Diff -0.5 0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 38% 26% 36%
Observed-shots-based 15% 22% 62%
Diff -23% -4% 27%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 39 58 64 6
Defence 36 94 61 42
Overall 32 90 68 10


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