St Étienne


0 : 2

Nantes


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

39%

Draw

28%

Away win

33%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.7

Home win

22%

Draw

33%

Away win

45%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.1
Observed-shots-based 0.7 1.0
Diff -0.6 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 39% 28% 33%
Observed-shots-based 22% 33% 45%
Diff -17% 5% 12%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 35 25 50 82
Defence 50 18 65 75
Overall 40 10 60 90


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