The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

---

	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	1.7	0.8
Observed-shots-based	1.4	0.3
Diff	-0.4	-0.5

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	61%	23%	16%
Observed-shots-based	69%	24%	6%
Diff	9%	1%	-10%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	43	39		35	85
Defence	65	15		57	61
Overall	53	18		47	82