Rennes


0 : 1

Marseille


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

39%

Draw

26%

Away win

35%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

36%

Draw

36%

Away win

28%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.3
Observed-shots-based 0.9 0.7
Diff -0.5 -0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 39% 26% 35%
Observed-shots-based 36% 36% 28%
Diff -2% 9% -7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 38 20 36 65
Defence 64 35 62 80
Overall 51 18 49 82


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek