Milan


0 : 0

Sampdoria


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

50%

Draw

26%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

69%

Draw

21%

Away win

10%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.8 0.6
Diff 0.3 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 50% 26% 23%
Observed-shots-based 69% 21% 10%
Diff 19% -5% -14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 58 7 40 27
Defence 60 73 42 93
Overall 62 20 38 80


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