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Home Goals
1.8
Home win
45%
Draw
23%
Away win
32%
Away Goals
1.5
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.3
Home win
49%
Draw
30%
Away win
22%
Away Goals
0.8
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Diff | -0.6 | -0.8 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 45% | 23% | 32% |
Observed-shots-based | 49% | 30% | 22% |
Diff | 4% | 7% | -11% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 38 | 13 | 32 | 63 | |
Defence | 68 | 37 | 62 | 87 | |
Overall | 53 | 14 | 47 | 86 |
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