Lecce


0 : 1

Udinese


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

45%

Draw

23%

Away win

32%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

49%

Draw

30%

Away win

22%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.5
Observed-shots-based 1.3 0.8
Diff -0.6 -0.8

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 45% 23% 32%
Observed-shots-based 49% 30% 22%
Diff 4% 7% -11%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 38 13 32 63
Defence 68 37 62 87
Overall 53 14 47 86


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