Real Sociedad


1 : 2

Villarreal


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

47%

Draw

24%

Away win

29%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

20%

Draw

29%

Away win

51%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.0 1.5
Diff -0.7 0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 47% 24% 29%
Observed-shots-based 20% 29% 51%
Diff -27% 5% 22%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 34 53 58 69
Defence 42 31 66 47
Overall 33 36 67 64


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