Liverpool


2 : 0

Sheffield United


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

67%

Draw

20%

Away win

12%

Away Goals

0.7

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

3.4

Home win

92%

Draw

6%

Away win

1%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.0 0.7
Observed-shots-based 3.4 0.6
Diff 1.4 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 67% 20% 12%
Observed-shots-based 92% 6% 1%
Diff 25% -15% -11%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 76 19 50 21
Defence 50 79 24 81
Overall 74 33 26 67


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