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Home Goals
1.0
Home win
26%
Draw
26%
Away win
48%
Away Goals
1.5
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
0.5
Home win
4%
Draw
11%
Away win
85%
Away Goals
2.6
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.0 | 1.5 |
Observed-shots-based | 0.5 | 2.6 |
Diff | -0.5 | 1.1 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 26% | 26% | 48% |
Observed-shots-based | 4% | 11% | 85% |
Diff | -23% | -15% | 37% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 35 | 29 | 72 | 63 | |
Defence | 28 | 37 | 65 | 71 | |
Overall | 23 | 28 | 77 | 72 |
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