Newcastle United


0 : 3

Leicester City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

26%

Draw

26%

Away win

48%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.5

Home win

4%

Draw

11%

Away win

85%

Away Goals

2.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.0 1.5
Observed-shots-based 0.5 2.6
Diff -0.5 1.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 26% 26% 48%
Observed-shots-based 4% 11% 85%
Diff -23% -15% 37%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 35 29 72 63
Defence 28 37 65 71
Overall 23 28 77 72


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