Aston Villa


1 : 0

Norwich City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

49%

Draw

22%

Away win

28%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

23%

Draw

25%

Away win

52%

Away Goals

1.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.9 1.4
Observed-shots-based 1.1 1.7
Diff -0.8 0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 49% 22% 28%
Observed-shots-based 23% 25% 52%
Diff -27% 3% 24%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 32 51 57 8
Defence 43 92 68 49
Overall 32 85 68 15


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