Bournemouth


1 : 1

Arsenal


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

37%

Draw

24%

Away win

39%

Away Goals

1.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

21%

Draw

22%

Away win

57%

Away Goals

2.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 1.6
Observed-shots-based 1.4 2.2
Diff -0.2 0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 37% 24% 39%
Observed-shots-based 21% 22% 57%
Diff -16% -2% 17%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 47 40 62 21
Defence 38 79 53 60
Overall 38 68 62 32


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