Real Madrid


0 : 0

Athletic de Bilbao


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

64%

Draw

21%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

0.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

78%

Draw

15%

Away win

6%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.0 0.8
Observed-shots-based 2.3 0.6
Diff 0.3 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 64% 21% 15%
Observed-shots-based 78% 15% 6%
Diff 14% -6% -8%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 57 4 43 27
Defence 57 73 43 96
Overall 60 14 40 86


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