The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

---

	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	1.2	1.7
Observed-shots-based	2.0	1.2
Diff	0.8	-0.5

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	25%	24%	51%
Observed-shots-based	57%	23%	19%
Diff	32%	-0%	-31%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	71	53		39	13
Defence	61	87		29	47
Overall	72	79		28	21