FC Schalke 04


2 : 2

SC Freiburg


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

52%

Draw

24%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

15%

Draw

18%

Away win

66%

Away Goals

3.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.0
Observed-shots-based 1.8 3.0
Diff 0.1 1.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 52% 24% 23%
Observed-shots-based 15% 18% 66%
Diff -37% -6% 43%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 53 60 88 24
Defence 12 76 47 40
Overall 22 75 78 25


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