Newcastle United


1 : 0

Crystal Palace


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

37%

Draw

28%

Away win

35%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.6

Home win

12%

Draw

25%

Away win

62%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.1
Observed-shots-based 0.6 1.5
Diff -0.6 0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 37% 28% 35%
Observed-shots-based 12% 25% 62%
Diff -25% -3% 27%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 34 72 60 9
Defence 40 91 66 28
Overall 32 93 68 7


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