Borussia Mönchengladbach


2 : 0

SC Paderborn


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.5

Home win

61%

Draw

19%

Away win

21%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.7

Home win

79%

Draw

14%

Away win

7%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.5 1.4
Observed-shots-based 2.7 1.0
Diff 0.3 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 61% 19% 21%
Observed-shots-based 79% 14% 7%
Diff 18% -5% -14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 57 32 40 17
Defence 60 83 43 68
Overall 61 56 39 44


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