SV Werder Bremen


0 : 5

1. FSV Mainz 05


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

49%

Draw

23%

Away win

28%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.8

Home win

14%

Draw

22%

Away win

64%

Away Goals

1.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.3
Observed-shots-based 0.8 1.9
Diff -0.9 0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 49% 23% 28%
Observed-shots-based 14% 22% 64%
Diff -35% -2% 36%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 29 21 64 98
Defence 36 2 71 79
Overall 25 1 75 99


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek