Verona


3 : 3

Torino


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

36%

Draw

27%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

54%

Draw

24%

Away win

22%

Away Goals

1.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.2
Observed-shots-based 2.0 1.4
Diff 0.8 0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 36% 27% 36%
Observed-shots-based 54% 24% 22%
Diff 17% -3% -14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 70 83 55 90
Defence 45 10 30 17
Overall 61 34 39 66


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