Lyon


0 : 1

Rennes


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

56%

Draw

23%

Away win

21%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.4

Home win

6%

Draw

19%

Away win

75%

Away Goals

1.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.0
Observed-shots-based 0.4 1.8
Diff -1.4 0.8

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 56% 23% 21%
Observed-shots-based 6% 19% 75%
Diff -50% -5% 55%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 18 34 70 28
Defence 30 72 82 66
Overall 15 60 85 40


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