Hertha BSC


1 : 0

SC Freiburg


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

50%

Draw

24%

Away win

26%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

36%

Draw

29%

Away win

35%

Away Goals

1.1

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.1
Observed-shots-based 1.2 1.1
Diff -0.5 0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 50% 24% 26%
Observed-shots-based 36% 29% 35%
Diff -14% 5% 9%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 39 48 51 15
Defence 49 85 61 52
Overall 41 75 59 25


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek