Real Sociedad


2 : 2

Barcelona


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

33%

Draw

25%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

3.4

Home win

88%

Draw

8%

Away win

4%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.5
Observed-shots-based 3.4 0.9
Diff 2.0 -0.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 33% 25% 42%
Observed-shots-based 88% 8% 4%
Diff 55% -17% -38%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 87 18 37 85
Defence 63 15 13 82
Overall 86 8 14 92


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