Aston Villa


1 : 4

Leicester City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

32%

Draw

26%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

1.5

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

2%

Draw

4%

Away win

86%

Away Goals

4.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.5
Observed-shots-based 1.4 4.9
Diff 0.2 3.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 32% 26% 42%
Observed-shots-based 2% 4% 86%
Diff -30% -21% 44%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 55 40 94 33
Defence 6 67 45 60
Overall 11 59 89 41


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