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Home Goals
1.8
Home win
43%
Draw
23%
Away win
34%
Away Goals
1.6
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.3
Home win
17%
Draw
20%
Away win
63%
Away Goals
2.2
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.3 | 2.2 |
Diff | -0.5 | 0.7 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 43% | 23% | 34% |
Observed-shots-based | 17% | 20% | 63% |
Diff | -27% | -2% | 29% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 39 | 76 | 66 | 45 | |
Defence | 34 | 55 | 61 | 24 | |
Overall | 31 | 73 | 69 | 27 |
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