Watford


0 : 0

Crystal Palace


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

40%

Draw

26%

Away win

35%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

64%

Draw

28%

Away win

8%

Away Goals

0.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.3 0.3
Diff -0.1 -1.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 40% 26% 35%
Observed-shots-based 64% 28% 8%
Diff 24% 2% -27%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 48 12 23 36
Defence 77 64 52 88
Overall 66 22 34 78


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