Rennes


2 : 1

Angers


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

44%

Draw

27%

Away win

29%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

38%

Draw

32%

Away win

29%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.0
Observed-shots-based 1.0 0.9
Diff -0.3 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 44% 27% 29%
Observed-shots-based 38% 32% 29%
Diff -6% 5% 1%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 43 83 47 57
Defence 53 43 57 17
Overall 47 74 53 26


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