Bayer 04 Leverkusen


2 : 1

FC Schalke 04


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

57%

Draw

23%

Away win

20%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

77%

Draw

16%

Away win

7%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.0
Observed-shots-based 2.3 0.7
Diff 0.5 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 57% 23% 20%
Observed-shots-based 77% 16% 7%
Diff 21% -7% -14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 61 43 42 66
Defence 58 34 39 57
Overall 64 35 36 65


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