Borussia Dortmund


5 : 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.5

Home win

69%

Draw

17%

Away win

14%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.8

Home win

93%

Draw

5%

Away win

1%

Away Goals

0.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.5 1.1
Observed-shots-based 2.8 0.2
Diff 0.3 -0.9

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 69% 17% 14%
Observed-shots-based 93% 5% 1%
Diff 24% -12% -14%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 56 91 22 42
Defence 78 58 44 9
Overall 69 92 31 8


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