Granada CF


3 : 0

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Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

47%

Draw

28%

Away win

25%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

83%

Draw

14%

Away win

3%

Away Goals

0.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 0.9
Observed-shots-based 2.0 0.4
Diff 0.7 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 47% 28% 25%
Observed-shots-based 83% 14% 3%
Diff 36% -15% -22%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 67 82 34 34
Defence 66 66 33 18
Overall 73 86 27 14


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