Lille


1 : 0

Brest


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

65%

Draw

20%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.6

Home win

89%

Draw

9%

Away win

2%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.1 0.9
Observed-shots-based 2.6 0.5
Diff 0.5 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 65% 20% 15%
Observed-shots-based 89% 9% 2%
Diff 24% -11% -13%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 62 11 39 29
Defence 61 71 38 89
Overall 66 22 34 78


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