Southampton


2 : 1

Norwich City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

57%

Draw

21%

Away win

22%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

63%

Draw

22%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.1 1.2
Observed-shots-based 1.9 0.9
Diff -0.2 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 57% 21% 22%
Observed-shots-based 63% 22% 15%
Diff 6% 1% -7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 46 57 41 59
Defence 59 41 54 43
Overall 52 51 48 49


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