Paris Saint Germain


2 : 0

Nantes


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

71%

Draw

18%

Away win

11%

Away Goals

0.7

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

77%

Draw

16%

Away win

6%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.2 0.7
Observed-shots-based 2.1 0.6
Diff -0.2 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 71% 18% 11%
Observed-shots-based 77% 16% 6%
Diff 6% -2% -5%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 48 50 46 27
Defence 54 73 52 50
Overall 50 66 50 34


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