Chelsea


2 : 1

Aston Villa


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

70%

Draw

18%

Away win

12%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.3

Home win

64%

Draw

20%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

1.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.3 0.9
Observed-shots-based 2.3 1.2
Diff 0.0 0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 70% 18% 12%
Observed-shots-based 64% 20% 15%
Diff -6% 3% 3%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 51 44 61 45
Defence 39 55 49 56
Overall 45 48 55 52


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