The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Performance review

---

	Home xG	Away xG
Pre-match	1.7	1.2
Observed-shots-based	1.6	0.9
Diff	-0.1	-0.3

	Home win	Draw	Away win
Pre-match	50%	24%	26%
Observed-shots-based	58%	27%	16%
Diff	8%	3%	-11%

	Home			Away
	Performance Index	Luck Index		Performance Index	Luck Index
Attack	49	68		43	59
Defence	57	41		51	32
Overall	54	58		46	42