Brest


5 : 0

Strasbourg


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

33%

Draw

26%

Away win

41%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

63%

Draw

23%

Away win

13%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 1.4
Observed-shots-based 1.8 0.9
Diff 0.6 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 33% 26% 41%
Observed-shots-based 63% 23% 13%
Diff 31% -3% -28%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 66 100 38 20
Defence 62 80 34 0
Overall 70 100 30 0


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