Cagliari


4 : 3

Sampdoria


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

36%

Draw

26%

Away win

38%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

26%

Draw

28%

Away win

46%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.3
Observed-shots-based 1.2 1.6
Diff -0.1 0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 36% 26% 38%
Observed-shots-based 26% 28% 46%
Diff -10% 2% 8%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 49 99 58 91
Defence 42 9 51 1
Overall 44 83 56 17


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