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Home Goals
1.3
Home win
36%
Draw
26%
Away win
38%
Away Goals
1.3
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.2
Home win
26%
Draw
28%
Away win
46%
Away Goals
1.6
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.2 | 1.6 |
Diff | -0.1 | 0.2 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 36% | 26% | 38% |
Observed-shots-based | 26% | 28% | 46% |
Diff | -10% | 2% | 8% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 49 | 99 | 58 | 91 | |
Defence | 42 | 9 | 51 | 1 | |
Overall | 44 | 83 | 56 | 17 |
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