Napoli


1 : 2

Bologna


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.0

Home win

63%

Draw

21%

Away win

16%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.6

Home win

73%

Draw

16%

Away win

11%

Away Goals

1.1

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.0 0.9
Observed-shots-based 2.6 1.1
Diff 0.6 0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 63% 21% 16%
Observed-shots-based 73% 16% 11%
Diff 10% -5% -5%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 63 14 55 82
Defence 45 18 37 86
Overall 58 7 42 93


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