Manchester United


2 : 2

Aston Villa


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

66%

Draw

19%

Away win

15%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

58%

Draw

23%

Away win

19%

Away Goals

1.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.2 1.0
Observed-shots-based 2.1 1.3
Diff -0.1 0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 66% 19% 15%
Observed-shots-based 58% 23% 19%
Diff -8% 4% 4%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 49 49 60 77
Defence 40 23 51 51
Overall 43 30 57 70


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