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Home Goals
2.2
Home win
66%
Draw
19%
Away win
15%
Away Goals
1.0
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
2.1
Home win
58%
Draw
23%
Away win
19%
Away Goals
1.3
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 2.2 | 1.0 |
Observed-shots-based | 2.1 | 1.3 |
Diff | -0.1 | 0.3 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 66% | 19% | 15% |
Observed-shots-based | 58% | 23% | 19% |
Diff | -8% | 4% | 4% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 49 | 49 | 60 | 77 | |
Defence | 40 | 23 | 51 | 51 | |
Overall | 43 | 30 | 57 | 70 |
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