Real Sociedad


4 : 1

Eibar


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

52%

Draw

25%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

46%

Draw

30%

Away win

24%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.2 0.8
Diff -0.3 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 52% 25% 23%
Observed-shots-based 46% 30% 24%
Diff -6% 5% 1%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 43 98 47 61
Defence 53 39 57 2
Overall 46 96 54 4


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