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Home Goals
1.2
Home win
38%
Draw
28%
Away win
35%
Away Goals
1.2
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.0
Home win
43%
Draw
34%
Away win
23%
Away Goals
0.7
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Diff | -0.2 | -0.5 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 38% | 28% | 35% |
Observed-shots-based | 43% | 34% | 23% |
Diff | 5% | 6% | -11% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 45 | 96 | 37 | 68 | |
Defence | 63 | 32 | 55 | 4 | |
Overall | 55 | 90 | 45 | 10 |
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