Newcastle United


2 : 2

Manchester City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

0.7

Home win

9%

Draw

17%

Away win

74%

Away Goals

2.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.3

Home win

1%

Draw

7%

Away win

91%

Away Goals

2.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 0.7 2.3
Observed-shots-based 0.3 2.8
Diff -0.4 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 9% 17% 74%
Observed-shots-based 1% 7% 91%
Diff -8% -9% 17%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 36 99 60 32
Defence 40 68 64 1
Overall 35 95 65 5


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