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Home Goals
0.7
Home win
9%
Draw
17%
Away win
74%
Away Goals
2.3
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
0.3
Home win
1%
Draw
7%
Away win
91%
Away Goals
2.8
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 0.7 | 2.3 |
Observed-shots-based | 0.3 | 2.8 |
Diff | -0.4 | 0.5 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 9% | 17% | 74% |
Observed-shots-based | 1% | 7% | 91% |
Diff | -8% | -9% | 17% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 36 | 99 | 60 | 32 | |
Defence | 40 | 68 | 64 | 1 | |
Overall | 35 | 95 | 65 | 5 |
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