Sassuolo


1 : 2

Lazio


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

32%

Draw

24%

Away win

44%

Away Goals

1.7

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

36%

Draw

26%

Away win

37%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.7
Observed-shots-based 1.4 1.5
Diff 0.0 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 32% 24% 44%
Observed-shots-based 36% 26% 37%
Diff 4% 3% -7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 52 37 46 69
Defence 54 31 48 63
Overall 54 27 46 73


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