Sampdoria


2 : 1

Udinese


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

54%

Draw

24%

Away win

22%

Away Goals

1.0

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.4

Home win

86%

Draw

11%

Away win

3%

Away Goals

0.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.0
Observed-shots-based 2.4 0.4
Diff 0.7 -0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 54% 24% 22%
Observed-shots-based 86% 11% 3%
Diff 32% -13% -19%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 66 41 34 78
Defence 66 22 34 59
Overall 72 26 28 74


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