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Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

53%

Draw

25%

Away win

22%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

43%

Draw

28%

Away win

29%

Away Goals

1.1

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.4 1.1
Diff -0.2 0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 53% 25% 22%
Observed-shots-based 43% 28% 29%
Diff -10% 3% 7%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 46 11 56 80
Defence 44 20 54 89
Overall 43 6 57 94


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