West Ham United


2 : 3

Tottenham Hotspur


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

29%

Draw

24%

Away win

47%

Away Goals

1.7

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

24%

Draw

26%

Away win

50%

Away Goals

1.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 1.7
Observed-shots-based 1.1 1.6
Diff -0.2 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 29% 24% 47%
Observed-shots-based 24% 26% 50%
Diff -5% 2% 3%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 47 80 50 88
Defence 50 12 53 20
Overall 48 37 52 63


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