Amiens


0 : 4

Strasbourg


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

38%

Draw

29%

Away win

33%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.3

Home win

1%

Draw

9%

Away win

90%

Away Goals

2.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.1
Observed-shots-based 0.3 2.2
Diff -0.8 1.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 38% 29% 33%
Observed-shots-based 1% 9% 90%
Diff -36% -20% 57%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 28 35 78 93
Defence 22 7 72 65
Overall 15 5 85 95


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